Imagine the thrill of the 2025 World Series fading into memory, only for the gears of baseball to shift immediately into high gear for the upcoming 2026 season—decisions about free agents, qualifying offers, and potential team shake-ups are already buzzing. But here's where it gets controversial: Will these top players settle for a one-year deal, or chase the big money on the open market, potentially leaving their teams scrambling? Stick around, because this insider look dives deep into who might get that pivotal offer and how it could reshape rosters.
The 2025 World Series has just wrapped up, yet the world of Major League Baseball never truly hits pause. Right away, we're diving into preparations for the 2026 season, focusing on which free agents will be extended a qualifying offer—and among those who receive it, who will actually say yes or no. For those new to this, a qualifying offer (QO) is essentially a one-year contract proposal that teams can make to certain eligible free agents, with a salary that adjusts yearly (set at $22.025 million for the 2026 season). Teams have a tight five-day window after the World Series to make the call, this time ending Thursday at 5 p.m. ET, while players get until November 18 to respond. Accepting it means staying with their current team for another year at that fixed pay. Rejecting it? They're free to shop around in free agency.
There's more nuance here, like how teams that lose a player who rejected a QO might get compensation through extra draft picks—feel free to explore that in greater detail at MLB's glossary. But after over a decade of this system in place since 2012, clear patterns have emerged. Out of 144 players who've received the offer (roughly a dozen annually), only 14—or about 10%—have taken it. Why so low? Most players deemed worthy of a QO are stars capable of landing lucrative multi-year deals elsewhere, so a single-year commitment often feels like a step backward. And this is the part most people miss: The QO isn't just a financial tool; it's a strategic chess move that can influence trades, extensions, and even playoff hopes.
Remember, though, not every free agent qualifies. If a player bounced between teams during their qualifying season, they're out—think of examples like Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Shane Bieber, Cedric Mullins, or Merrill Kelly. Plus, no second QO for anyone who's already been offered one, ruling out folks like Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, J.T. Realmuto, and others this year. For everyone else, let's break down the likely scenarios.
1) Players almost certain to get the qualifying offer—and equally certain to turn it down.
SS Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
RHP Edwin Díaz, Mets
DH Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
LHP Ranger Suárez, Phillies
OF Kyle Tucker, Cubs
LHP Framber Valdez, Astros
This group represents six of the premier eligible free agents, each at different career points but all poised for bigger opportunities. Despite their diversity, none seem inclined to accept a single-year pact when multi-year fortunes await. Even setbacks like late-season injuries for Bichette or Tucker don't dim their market appeal—they're still among the elite in this free agent class. For beginners, think of it like: Why take a quick paycheck when you can negotiate a long-term wealth-building contract?
That said, these players aren't necessarily bolting instantly; extensions could keep stars like Díaz or Schwarber in familiar spots, like the NL East. The QO here is more of a procedural step, easily overlooked if long-term talks succeed. And there are going to be more offers handed out overall—these are the obvious ones, the no-brainers where skipping one would shock fans. Maybe, just maybe, Bichette considers it to hit free agency fresh off a healthy year, but his 2025 performance makes that a long shot. Now, onto the juicier debates.
2) Candidates that deserve serious team deliberation.
We've spotlighted 14 eligible players teams might consider for the QO. Some will get it, others won't—let's explore the batters and pitchers separately.
Batters
1B/DH Luis Arraez, Padres
OF Trent Grisham, Yankees
2B Jorge Polanco, Mariners
2B Gleyber Torres, Tigers
Arraez could spark endless debates: Is his ultra-low strikeout rate (a rare skill, like swinging at pitches others avoid) his biggest strength, or does it overshadow his minimal power and defensive shortcomings? His 2025 season was his weakest yet (.292 batting average, 99 OPS+—that's a measure comparing a hitter's overall production to the league average, where 100 is typical). While his 2022-23 peak showed value with a .335 average and 128 OPS+, this recent dip raises doubts. The real question might be whether he'll secure a starting role, not a QO. Prediction: No offer for him.
Grisham flips the script: As a flexible outfielder with frequent strikeouts and a low batting average, he still boasts impressive power, capping his best year with 34 home runs for the Yankees (over half on the road, proving it's not just stadium magic). He's the type teams hate to lose due to that homer output, yet his fading speed, defense, and inconsistent hitting history make long-term commitments tricky. The Yankees, with Aaron Judge already locked in, might weigh offering a QO to Grisham while Bellinger remains unsigned—perhaps to avoid losing both, or even trade Grisham if needed. Prediction: Offer extended, and he'll accept it.
Polanco, opting out of his $6 million player option, might seem a shoo-in after playoff heroics, but his 2025 season was erratic. Seattle previously passed on paying him $12 million for 2025, opting instead for a $7.75 million deal when they re-signed him. They might want to continue the relationship without jumping to triple his pay. Prediction: No offer expected.
Torres excelled in his one-year deal with Detroit, earning All-Star honors early on with a .812 OPS, though a hernia injury dragged his second half to .659 OPS. The Tigers could value keeping him for another season at a slight raise from his $15 million earnings, but he'll likely aim for multi-year security. Detroit hasn't issued a QO since 2014, so it's a stretch. Prediction: No offer.
Pitchers
RHP Dylan Cease, Padres
RHP Zach Eflin, Orioles
RHP Jack Flaherty, Tigers
RHP Zac Gallen, D-backs
RHP Lucas Giolito, Red Sox
LHP Shota Imanaga, Cubs
RHP Michael King, Padres
RHP Robert Suarez, Padres
RHP Devin Williams, Yankees
RHP Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Cease's 2025 was bizarre—his fifth straight 200-strikeout season (a feat unmatched by others with more than three), yet marred by a 4.55 ERA, repeating an issue from recent years. As a pitcher with high walks and few grounders, his stats can fluctuate, but his reliability and strikeout prowess make him irreplaceable. He'll snag a long-term deal, stunning critics fixated on ERA alone. Prediction: Gets the offer, rejects it to chase bigger fish.
Eflin, with a 5.45 ERA and a July-ending back injury, might surprise. The Orioles need rotation depth, and his 2024 success after joining them earned him the 2025 opener role. If healthy, retaining him or gaining a draft pick via QO rejection could appeal, especially since $22 million isn't a huge leap from his 2025 pay. But back issues are red flags—maybe they'll opt for a shorter multi-year pact. Prediction: No offer.
Flaherty's career has been rollercoaster-like, including a turbulent 2025 with Detroit after his 2024 free agency. He managed 31 starts (most since 2019), but his average fastball velocity dipped to a career-low 92 mph. He could exercise his $20 million player option for 2026, bypassing this altogether. Alternatively, since QOs are one-and-done, he might accept to stay in Detroit for a modest bump, avoiding future uncertainties. This one's tangled. Prediction: Either uses his option or accepts the offer if extended.
Gallen, after dominating as a top-10 starter for three years, struggled in 2025 with a 4.51 ERA, though he rebounded late (3.32 ERA and 3.29 expected ERA) and stayed healthy in 33 starts. At 30, he's prime for the market. Prediction: Offer incoming, but he'll decline for more lucrative terms.
Giolito bounced back from 2024 Tommy John surgery with 26 starts and a 3.41 ERA for Boston, but his expected ERA was a harsher 5.05, and he exited with another elbow issue. The QO's $22 million is close to his 2024 earnings, but the injury concerns loom large. Prediction: No offer.
Imanaga's situation is intricate—the Cubs could activate a three-year, $57.75 million option, or he could choose a $15.25 million one-year deal, otherwise becoming eligible for free agency and a QO. Despite a 2025 regression, their rotation needs make the multi-year option sensible. Prediction: No QO needed, as Cubs likely exercise their option.
King impressed in his Padres debut (173 2/3 innings, 2.95 ERA in 2024), then battled shoulder and knee injuries in 2025, though he finished strong. Over five seasons, he's logged 466 innings with a 2.99 ERA. With Cease potentially leaving, retaining him via QO or gaining picks if he rejects seems smart. Prediction: Offer out, but he'll turn it down.
Suarez, a two-time All-Star reliever, opted out of $16 million over two years at 35. The Padres' loaded bullpen, boosted by Mason Miller's trade, makes a QO unlikely for him. Prediction: No offer.
Williams outperformed his 4.79 ERA and mishaps; his 3.04 expected ERA and 2.68 FIP tell a better story. He ended with 13 scoreless outings, including playoffs, though inherited runners sometimes scored after him. Some team will value him, but New York seems ready to move on. Prediction: No offer.
Woodruff, once elite, missed time due to shoulder surgery and returned for 12 solid starts before a lat strain. His $20 million mutual option with a $10 million buyout lets him test free agency safely. Milwaukee offering a QO on top would push his 2026 earnings to $32 million, but his health history makes it improbable. Prediction: No offer.
3) Wrapping up with our forecasted scenario...
We project 11 players will receive the QO, aligning with past norms: Bichette, Cease, Díaz, Flaherty, Gallen, Grisham, King, Schwarber, Tucker, Valdez, and Robert Suarez. Among them, Flaherty and Grisham are the most probable acceptors. We'll have confirmation by November 18.
What do you think—should teams use qualifying offers more as a retention tool, or lean into draft picks for rebuilding? And is there a player here you'd love to see accept or reject? Share your hot takes in the comments; let's debate!
